Forecast calculator

AI makes building fast. Reviewing, deciding and waiting still take time. This adds it all up.

1. What are you building?

ProductData and platformMaintenance

Logins and payments are always high risk.

2. How long does building take with AI?Hands-on building with your AI tools. Just the building.

Building in old or fragile code? AI helps less there, so pick a longer option.

3. How risky is it?

4. What still needs deciding or designing?

5. Waiting on anyone outside the team?

For example a vendor, another team, a customer, app store review, a security review or legal approval.

Adjust the suggested days

Starting suggestions. Change them to fit your team.

Under half a day
0.25
0.5
About a day
0.5
1.5
2–3 days
2
3
About a week
4
6
Review: Low
0.25
0.5
Review: Medium
0.5
2
Review: High
2
5
Decisions: Nothing, it's clear
0
0.5
Decisions: Some questions or screens to design
1
3
Waiting: No
0
0
Waiting: One party, e.g. a vendor
1
3
Waiting: Several parties or approvals
3
10

Answer the questions above to see your estimate.

What this calculator will not do (rule 8.7)

Convert sizes to hours or scale any number by an AI factor; show percentiles from judgment (P50/P85 belong to F3, unavailable in the alpha); show a range without its sample count.

Coverage is (n−1)/(n+1): the chance the next comparable slice lands inside the range of n past ones.