SPECIFICATION
SLICE Framework v0.3
Revised specification · 16 October 2026
Archived version. Superseded by v0.3.1 (Public Alpha) on 16 October 2026. Reproduced unchanged as published; only this note was added.
0. Status and what changed in v0.3
v0.3 is a pilot-ready working specification, not a public standard. It adopts most of an external critical review of v0.2, adds five amendments of its own, and corrects four errors v0.2 made.
| # | Change from v0.2 | Reason | Section |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | "Building is cheap" replaced by a sharper thesis and a fixed vocabulary | "Cheap" mixed up speed, effort and cash | 1 |
| 2 | Decision Budget becomes Proportionate Planning: Coordination Budget, Decision Gate, Learning Investment | The old name implied capping decisions, the opposite of the thesis | 6 |
| 3 | Build to decide becomes Experiment to decide (Mode E) | A prototype cannot test willingness to pay | 6 |
| 4 | Capacity-bound becomes Constraint-aware, with verification as the default presumed constraint | The limit differs by team and keeps moving | 4, 9 |
| 5 | Separate delivery and outcome lifecycles | Delivery can finish weeks before an outcome can be judged | 5 |
| 6 | Item types Bet, Obligation and Improvement, with a guard on Improvement | Not all work is an experiment | 5 |
| 7 | Sample minimums are floors, not guarantees; F3 needs back-tested calibration; no P95 for small teams | v0.2 treated an order-statistics result as a forecast guarantee | 8 |
| 8 | Spec rule becomes "one authoritative, versioned source of intent" | Repository-only was too restrictive | 7 |
| 9 | Solo high-risk work: reduce the consequence by design, then buy specialist review | v0.2's independent-review rule was impossible for one person | 9 |
| 10 | Delivery economics added; cost per validated outcome rejected | Cash cost is real; outcome counts are too small to divide by | 11 |
| 11 | Three minimum records: Roadmap item, Slice card, Evidence record | Keeps solo overhead low | 10 |
| 12 | Positioning corrected for Spec Kit, OpenSpec, Kiro and Evidence-Based Management | v0.2 understated the overlap | 3 |
Errors in v0.2, now corrected: Spec Kit is no longer a feature-only tool; the 4% to 6% checkout example needed roughly 1,860 trials per group to detect; the solo independent-review rule could not be met; and "done after outcome review" mixed two lifecycles.
Still open: the public name, statistical acceptance criteria for each forecast model, and whether the combined method outperforms existing approaches at all.
1. Thesis and vocabulary
When implementation stops being the slowest step, delivery is limited by deciding and proving. SLICE finds the current limit and manages work to it. v0.2's "building is cheap" is retired: AI can shorten implementation while raising model spend, review, rework or maintenance.
| Kind of work | What it is | SLICE stance |
|---|---|---|
| Coordination | Estimating, tickets, status, specs written only for other people | Minimise it under a Coordination Budget |
| Decision | Choosing the user, the problem, the investment, the scope cut and the evidence that counts | Gate it; give it the time the uncertainty needs |
| Learning | Getting evidence that resolves a decision: interviews, tests, prototypes | Fund it as a Learning Investment |
| Verification | Showing that an implementation meets its acceptance evidence | Never skipped; sized to risk |
1.1 Vocabulary (frozen for v0.3)
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Generation speed | How fast an agent produces a first implementation; tooling analysis only |
| Implementation effort | Human attention needed to build or change a solution |
| Delivery lead time | Request to accepted release |
| Verification effort | Work to show an implementation meets its acceptance evidence |
| Total delivery cost | People, AI usage, tooling, testing, infrastructure, rework and release |
| Cost of learning | Spend to obtain evidence for a product decision |
| Value delivered | Measured customer, business or operational benefit |
| Accepted | Delivery done: acceptance evidence passed |
| Resolved | Outcome judged: validated, invalidated, inconclusive or superseded |
Never write "fast", "cheap" or "productive" without naming which of these is meant.
2. Evidence base
The evidence supports a moving constraint more than any fixed speedup. Coding gains are real but uneven, downstream strain shows up consistently, and the decision bottleneck rests mostly on practitioner testimony. All telemetry below is observational association, not proof of cause.
| Source | Finding | Implication for SLICE |
|---|---|---|
| DORA 2025, ~5,000 professionals | AI amplifies existing strengths and dysfunctions. Adoption now correlates positively with throughput, but stability remains a problem; 30% report little or no trust in AI output. | AI is an execution resource, not a multiplier. Small batches and quality systems are prerequisites. |
| METR RCT and Feb 2026 update | Early 2025: experienced developers 19% slower, yet felt 20% faster. The 2026 follow-up could not size newer tools' effect because of selection effects. | No credible universal speedup exists. Forecast only from your own measured delivery. |
| Faros AI 2025, 10,000+ developers | More tasks and PRs per developer, but review time +91% and PR size +154%; company-level delivery flat. | Gains leak downstream. |
| Faros AI, Acceleration Whiplash, early 2026, 22,000 developers | Median time in review +441.5%; PRs merged without review +31.3%; incidents per PR +242.7%. | Review was the visible constraint. |
| Faros AI, Speed Trap, Q3 2026 | Unreviewed merges +76%; time in QA roughly tripled; restarts +67%. Checking moved further downstream to QA, SRE and on-call. | The constraint moves. SLICE must find it, not assume it. |
| Stanford, Denisov-Blanch, ~100,000 developers | Larger gains on simple greenfield work than on complex brownfield work, plus added rework. | Codebase type belongs in every reference class. The percentages are indicative for that population, never multipliers. |
| Andrew Ng, Stanford CS230 | Names a product-management bottleneck; engineer-to-PM ratios trending toward 1:1. | Supports the thesis, as expert testimony rather than measurement. |
| Shape Up | Appetite: a time budget set before shaping; fixed time, variable scope. | Source of SLICE's appetite. |
| Order statistics (SEP, ProKanban) | With n comparable past items, the chance the next falls inside their range is (n−1)/(n+1): about 75%, 83% and 90% for 7, 11 and 20. | Useful as a floor for F2, not as proof of calibration (section 8). |
The gap SLICE can fill: we found no published measurement of decision latency or idea-to-evidence time in AI-native teams. SLICE pilots that record them would produce first evidence for or against the thesis.
3. Landscape and positioning
Every individual SLICE practice already exists elsewhere; the claim is the combination, built for small AI-assisted teams. v0.2 said other AI-native methods only cover execution. That was wrong.
| Method | What it already does | Overlap | Where SLICE differs |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub Spec Kit | Spec-driven development, bug fixing, and an idea-assessment process ending in go, needs-clarification or kill | Decision gates, living specs | No roadmap, forecasting or post-release outcome review |
| OpenSpec | Lightweight change proposals and spec deltas reviewed before code | Living agent context | Change-level only |
| Kiro (AWS) | Spec-driven IDE | Specs and task decomposition | Tool-bound; no portfolio or forecasting |
| AWS AI-DLC | AI leads execution, humans hold decisions; short "Bolts"; Mob Elaboration | Operating model, persistent context | Ceremony-based; no forecasting or outcome loop |
| BMAD Method | Agent personas, PRDs and stories; planning tracks scaled to complexity | Proportionate planning | Document-forward; no roadmap or forecast |
| Shape Up | Appetite, shaping, betting, six-week cycles | Appetite, bets | SLICE runs continuous flow and adds forecasting |
| Kanban (ProKanban) | Flow metrics, Monte Carlo forecasting | F2–F3, WIP | SLICE adds decision and outcome layers |
| Evidence-Based Management (Scrum.org) | Four key value areas: Current Value, Unrealized Value, Time to Market, Ability to Innovate | Outcome evidence, experimentation | A measurement lens without delivery mechanics for agents |
| XB Software Functional Slices | Slice-based planning with multiplier estimates | Same unit and vocabulary | SLICE rejects multiplier estimates |
An external review also cited a framework called "SliceOps". We could not find it as an AI development method, so it is excluded until a source exists (section 15).
Positioning claim (a hypothesis, not a proven fact): SLICE connects product investment decisions, proportionate planning, AI-assisted execution, verified delivery and empirical forecasting in one lightweight, tool-independent operating contract, designed first for teams of 1–25. We do not claim it is the first to do so.
What pilots must show is distinctive:
- Proportionate Planning with an explicit Coordination Budget and Experiment-to-decide mode.
- Constraint-aware WIP limits, with verification held as a risk floor.
- F0–F3 evidence levels tied to Direction, Target and Commitment.
- Delivery and outcome lifecycles kept separate in one roadmap.
- Decision latency measured as a first-class metric.
Public line: "Use SLICE to decide, forecast and learn. Use any spec tool to execute."
4. Principles
Core line: "Decide deliberately. Build small. Count only what is proven." Five principles; "Execution" is what the framework governs, not a hidden sixth letter.
| Letter | v0.1 | v0.2 | v0.3 | Rule it creates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | Strategic | Strategic | Strategic | Every item traces to an outcome, an improvement or an obligation. |
| L | Lightweight | Lightweight | Lightweight | Minimise coordination; keep necessary decisions and assurance. |
| I | Iterative | Iterative | Iterative | Build, test, decide and adapt in small, evidence-generating increments. |
| C | Confidence-led | Capacity-bound | Constraint-aware | Find the current limit on flow and control work in progress there. Verification is the presumed constraint until measured otherwise. |
| E | Evidence-driven | Evidence-driven | Evidence-driven | Forecasts, delivery claims and product decisions state their evidence and confidence. |
Constraint-aware is more generic than Capacity-bound, so SLICE keeps two specifics that make it concrete: a default presumption (verification) and a verification floor that applies whatever the constraint is.
5. SLICE Roadmapping
Every roadmap item is a Bet, an Obligation or an Improvement, and delivery and outcome run as two separate lifecycles. The hierarchy (Outcome → Initiative → Feature → Slice → Agent work) and the Now/Next/Later horizons stay as in v0.1.
5.1 Item types
| Type | Use for | Required fields |
|---|---|---|
| Bet | Discretionary investment under uncertainty | Hypothesis, evidence today, appetite, decider, decision criterion, review date |
| Obligation | Required security, legal, contractual or operational work | Owner, acceptance standard, deadline if any, consequence of missing it |
| Improvement | Enhancement with an observable benefit and low uncertainty | Expected benefit and how it will be observed |
An Experiment is an activity inside a Bet, not a roadmap item: the least costly credible test of its uncertainty (section 6.3).
Guard: Improvement may not be used to avoid a hypothesis. Customer-facing work whose value is uncertain, or any item above the team's appetite threshold, is a Bet.
5.2 The Bet, with a criterion the team can actually measure
| Field | Example |
|---|---|
| Hypothesis | Trial users offered self-serve checkout will pay without a sales call |
| Evidence today | 9 of 12 interviewed trial users asked to pay without a call |
| Appetite | 3 weeks of verified delivery |
| Decision criterion | Continue if at least 5 of the first 20 trials start checkout and at least 2 pay; stop if fewer than 2 start |
| Review date | After 20 trials or 8 weeks, whichever comes first |
A percentage target must be detectable at the team's volume. Detecting a move from 4% to 6% conversion needs roughly 1,860 trials per group at 80% power and 5% significance, so early products should use count-based or qualitative criteria like the one above.
5.3 Two lifecycles
| Lifecycle | States | Counts toward |
|---|---|---|
| Delivery | Ready → Building → Verifying → Accepted | Throughput and forecasting, as soon as a slice is Accepted |
| Outcome | Proposed → Active → Measuring → Resolved | Roadmap learning; resolved as validated, invalidated, inconclusive or superseded |
Invalidated does not mean remove. A hypothesis can be wrong while the feature stays necessary; removal is one possible decision at resolution, not the default.
5.4 Prioritisation
- Obligations and critical dependencies first.
- Rank discretionary items by value, urgency and the strength of their evidence.
- Set an appetite and cut scope to fit it.
- When two Bets are close, take the one whose evidence arrives sooner.
6. Proportionate Planning (replaces the Decision Budget)
Planning depth follows uncertainty and the cost of reversal, under three controls: cap coordination, gate decisions, fund learning. A hard decision that merits careful investigation is not waste; only coordination is budgeted down.
6.1 Three controls
| Control | Purpose | Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Coordination Budget | Limit admin, status and documentation | Time-boxed by mode; exceeded only with a recorded reason |
| Decision Gate | What must be known or decided before work moves on | Passes when the stop rule (6.4) is answerable |
| Learning Investment | Resources to resolve uncertainty | Sized to the cost of being wrong, not capped by the Coordination Budget |
6.2 Modes
| Mode | Use when | Output | Illustrative coordination time box |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Direct | Reversible, obvious change | One line of acceptance | 5 minutes |
| 1 Slice brief | Bounded feature, known interfaces | A slice card | 15–30 minutes |
| E Experiment to decide | A desirability, usability, price or feasibility question blocks the decision | The least costly credible test and one recorded decision | Set by the Learning Investment |
| 2 Technical shape | Architecture, migrations, dependencies | A decision record and a spike | 1–2 hours before the spike |
| 3 Assured design | Money, access control, sensitive data, irreversible migrations, regulation | Reviewed design and test plan | Risk-governed, no ceiling |
6.3 Mode E: match the test to the question
| Uncertainty | Credible tests | Does not prove |
|---|---|---|
| Desirability | Interviews about past behaviour, fake-door test, waitlist conversion | Willingness to pay |
| Usability | Clickable or working prototype with five or more target users | Desirability |
| Willingness to pay | Pre-orders, deposits, a real checkout at real prices | Retention |
| Feasibility | Technical spike, small real implementation | Anything about customers |
A prototype answers usability; it rarely answers whether people will pay. This rule follows Lean UX and Teresa Torres's continuous discovery practice, both older than current AI tools.
6.4 The stop rule
Planning stops when the team can answer five questions: the outcome or obligation; the smallest useful slice; the most consequential risk; the evidence of completion; and whether any realistic answer to the next open question would change what gets built. If it would not, start.
6.5 Decision rights
Each Bet names one decider. Every decision gets one recorded line (what, why, who, date) where the team's people and agents can read it.
6.6 Measuring
Record coordination minutes and decision latency per slice, derived from issue and repository timestamps wherever possible, never from timesheets.
7. Specification as agent context
Every active slice has one authoritative, accessible, versioned source of intent, constraints and acceptance evidence, readable by the responsible people and agents. The repository is the preferred home for code-related context, not the only compliant one. An agent copies the patterns it finds, so inaccurate context is a defect.
| Layer | Contents | Typical homes |
|---|---|---|
| Product context | Target user, outcomes, glossary, constraints, non-negotiables, design-system rules | AGENTS.md, CLAUDE.md, a Spec Kit constitution, or a managed workspace such as a Lovable project |
| Decision log | One line per decision: what, why, who, date | The repository or the roadmap tool |
| Slice spec | The slice card plus acceptance evidence, as tests where possible | Beside the branch, an OpenSpec change folder, or the slice card itself |
Rules:
- Spec size follows the planning mode. A longer spec needs a stated reason.
- Acceptance evidence is executable where possible; the test suite is the durable form of the spec.
- Living, not frozen: when implementation contradicts the spec, update the spec first, then continue.
- Context is a defect when it is inaccurate, not when it is old. Each review asks whether the change made any context wrong.
- Any format conforms. SLICE specifies what must be present, not the tool.
8. SLICE Forecasting
Every forecast shows its sample, its assumptions and its track record; sample minimums are floors, never guarantees. Size (XS–XL), AI leverage and risk stay as in v0.1.
8.1 Decision wait is visible
Separating decision wait lets each forecast show how much delay comes from the bottleneck SLICE claims exists.
8.2 Reference classes
A reference class combines size, work type, planning mode and codebase context (greenfield, established, legacy). History from one context never forecasts another.
8.3 Evidence levels
| Level | Definition | Floor (necessary, not sufficient) | May report |
|---|---|---|---|
| F0 | Insufficient definition or evidence | — | "Not estimated" |
| F1 | Judgment or analogous work | — | Labelled scenarios; never percentiles |
| F2 | Measured history of comparable work | 7+ comparable accepted slices since the last major change | Observed range, sample count, known differences |
| F3 | Probabilistic model with demonstrated calibration | Enough history for the model, plus at least three back-tested forecasts with their hit rate | P50 and P85 with assumptions and hit rate; P95 only with a large, calibrated history |
8.4 Why floors are not guarantees
With n comparable past observations, the chance the next one falls inside their range is:
For 7, 11 and 20 observations that is about 75%, 83% and 90%. It holds only for comparable work from a stable process, and says nothing about one particular slice. Twenty observations cannot support a 1-in-20 tail, so small teams report P50 and P85 only. Statistical acceptance criteria for each F3 model remain an open item.
8.5 Change resets
A major change in model or tool, team or codebase phase opens a new reference window; old history becomes a prior until the new window meets its floor.
8.6 Two forecasts per Bet
A delivery forecast (F-level) and a separate outcome forecast, usually F0 or F1. Never merged into one confidence figure.
8.7 Non-conformant practice
- Estimates of the form "traditional estimate × AI factor".
- Percentiles derived from judgment.
- A range shown without its sample count.
9. Constraint-aware flow and verification
Control work in progress at the team's current constraint, and verify every slice to its risk tier whatever that constraint is. By Little's Law, average cycle time equals work in progress divided by throughput, so starting more work than the constraint can clear only lengthens cycle time.
9.1 Find the constraint
The constraint is the step where comparable slices wait longest: review, QA, a decision, deployment approval, customer access or legal clearance. Re-identify it monthly from wait times. Until measurement says otherwise, presume it is verification: successive Faros reports show the strain moving between review and QA rather than disappearing.
9.2 Work-in-progress rule
No new work enters while the queue in front of the constraint holds more than about one week of its capacity. If decisions are the constraint, stop producing implementation options nobody is ready to evaluate.
9.3 Verification floor
| Risk | Minimum verification |
|---|---|
| Low | Automated tests pass; agent review; human skim of the diff |
| Medium | Automated tests; full human review of the diff against acceptance evidence |
| High (Mode 3) | Independent review by someone who did not direct the agent; explicit approval for data, money or security changes |
Self-review or a second agent is a check, never independent approval. No unreviewed merges above Low risk.
9.4 High risk without a second person
- Reduce the consequence by design first: provider-hosted payment pages, managed authentication, test modes, feature flags, exposure to a few users at a time.
- Buy independent review for what remains before real money, sensitive data or access control go live: a contracted specialist or a provider's security review.
- Where independence is impossible, record the accepted risk and its limits (number of users, amounts, data involved) and keep exposure within them.
10. Workflow, cadence and minimum records
Decide, shape and forecast, build, verify, learn; new builds start only when the current constraint has room. No ceremony is mandatory.
[Diagram not reproduced in this archived version: SLICE v0.3 loop · 6 steps, 1 constraint gate.]
Delivery completes at Accepted; the outcome closes later, at Learn. Proof work is only the default constraint, so the gate moves to wherever measurement puts it.
10.1 Cadence
| When | What | Time |
|---|---|---|
| Continuous | Build, verify, release | — |
| Weekly | Flow check: work at the constraint, waits, decisions open too long | 20 minutes |
| On each review date | Outcome review: resolve the Bet | 15 minutes per Bet |
| Monthly | Bet review; re-identify the constraint; check reference windows | 60 minutes |
| Quarterly | Strategy and investor update | Half a day |
10.2 Minimum records
A solo founder keeps three records, nothing more:
| Record | Holds |
|---|---|
| Roadmap item | Type (Bet, Obligation, Improvement), outcome or reason, Now/Next/Later, owner or decider, appetite, commitment type, outcome state |
| Slice card | What changes, acceptance evidence, size, risk, AI leverage, planning mode, forecast and evidence level, delivery state |
| Evidence record | Actual dates, verification result, costs (people, AI, tooling), what was learned |
A team of 25 uses the same three records and adds dependency ownership and portfolio roll-ups. Timestamps and costs are collected automatically wherever possible. A Mode 1 slice card should stay under ten fields.
10.3 Slice card example (Mode 3)
SLICE CARD · v0.3
Roadmap item: Bet · Self-serve checkout (outcome state: Active)
Slice: Test-mode checkout creates the correct entitlement after a confirmed payment
Mode: 3 (money) Decider: founder
Size: L Risk: High (consequence) AI leverage: High
Reference class: L / integration / Mode 3 / established codebase
Acceptance evidence (as tests): successful, failed, delayed-webhook
and duplicate-webhook payments
Consequence reduced by design: provider-hosted checkout; test mode until review passes
Verification: contracted specialist reviews webhook and entitlement code before live mode
Forecast: 2-3 weeks · F1 scenario · Target
Delivery state: Building
Evidence record (at Accepted): dates · review result · people hours ·
AI spend · rework · what was learned
11. Metrics and delivery economics
Six mandatory metrics, one for each part of the system, plus optional economics. Everything else is for teams that need it.
| Area | Metric | Definition | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flow | Accepted throughput | Slices accepted per week, by reference class | Mandatory |
| Flow | Cycle time | Start to Accepted | Mandatory |
| Flow | WIP and item age | Items in progress and how long each has waited | Optional |
| Decision | Decision latency | Question raised to decision recorded | Mandatory |
| Decision | Idea-to-evidence time | Bet approved to first decision-relevant evidence | Optional |
| Constraint | Wait at the constraint | Queue time before the current constraint; review wait by default | Mandatory |
| Proof | Unreviewed-merge rate | By risk tier | Optional; must be reported if any occur above Low |
| Proof | Rework, restarts, change failure | As DORA defines change failure | Optional |
| Outcome | Outcome resolution | Share of Bets resolved by their review date, and how they resolved | Mandatory |
| Forecast | Calibration | Share of actuals inside the stated range (F2) or P85 (F3) | Mandatory |
| Economics | Cost per accepted slice | Total delivery cost ÷ accepted slices, within one reference class only | Optional |
| Economics | Learning spend per Bet | Cost of learning attributed to each Bet | Optional |
| Economics | AI and tooling spend | Per month and per accepted slice | Optional |
Not used: cost per validated outcome. A small team resolves a handful of dissimilar Bets per quarter, so the ratio is noise.
No metric becomes an individual performance target. Outcome resolution is the one most easily gamed, by writing timid hypotheses, so hypotheses are reviewed for ambition when the Bet is approved.
12. Scaling, commitments and investor communication
SLICE v0.3 is specified for teams of 1–25, and every external date shows its evidence level. Larger organisations stay in an untested appendix until pilots justify more.
12.1 Scope
| Area | Solo / 2–5 | 6–25 |
|---|---|---|
| Decision rights | Founder decides; decisions recorded | One decider per Bet |
| Constraint | Founder re-identifies monthly; verification presumed | Per team; review load shared, never pushed into a separate QA queue |
| Forecasting | F1 scenarios until F2 floors are met | F2 per reference class; F3 only with back-tested calibration |
| Reviews | Outcome reviews on their dates; weekly 20-minute flow check | Weekly flow check; monthly Bet review |
12.2 Commitment rules
- Every external date shows commitment type, evidence level and sample count, for example "Self-serve checkout · Target · Q1 · F2 (n=9)".
- A Commitment needs F2 or better, or the decider's written acceptance of F1 risk.
- Delivery dates and outcome forecasts are reported on separate lines.
12.3 Investor update, one page
- Bets, Obligations and major Improvements in Now and Next, with evidence levels.
- Delivery: what was accepted against the previous targets.
- Outcomes: Bets resolved this period, and how.
- Calibration: how last period's forecasts compared with actuals.
- Economics: total delivery cost and AI spend.
- Changes: what moved and why.
13. Conformance rules v0.3
Ten rules; a team that follows all ten practises SLICE, whatever its tools.
A team practising SLICE must:
- Keep an outcome-connected roadmap with Now, Next and Later, classifying each item as a Bet, Obligation or Improvement with that type's required fields.
- Choose a planning mode for each slice, and record a reason whenever coordination exceeds its budget.
- Name one decider per Bet, and record decisions where the team's people and agents can read them.
- Keep one authoritative, accessible, versioned source of intent, constraints and acceptance evidence for every active slice.
- Split scheduled work into independently verifiable slices, each reviewable in one sitting; decompose XL before scheduling.
- Record size, dominant risk, AI leverage, reference class and forecast evidence level for each slice.
- Identify the current constraint and limit work in progress there; verify every slice to its risk tier, and never present self-review as independent approval.
- Label every date with its commitment type, evidence level and sample count; never present judgment as percentiles; never scale an estimate by an AI factor.
- Track delivery state and outcome state separately: a slice counts at Accepted, a Bet closes at Resolved.
- Track the six mandatory metrics and use them to change plans.
Optional: tools, AI models, cadence, sprints, role names, storage location and prioritisation formula.
14. Validation plan and how SLICE could fail
Pilot v0.3 on three genuinely different products for eight weeks, with thresholds written before the pilot starts. The biggest open question is whether the method improves decisions, cost or forecasts at all, not whether its text is complete.
14.1 Pilot hypotheses (thresholds are proposals)
| # | Hypothesis | Passes if |
|---|---|---|
| H1 | Proportionate Planning shortens decisions | Median decision latency falls 30%+ from the first two weeks to the last two |
| H2 | Less coordination does not cost quality | Coordination minutes per slice fall while rework and change failure do not rise |
| H3 | Forecasts are calibrated | 70%+ of F2 actuals fall inside the stated range |
| H4 | The outcome loop runs | 80%+ of Bets resolve on or near their review date |
| H5 | The WIP rule protects the constraint | Wait at the constraint stays flat while accepted throughput rises |
| H6 | Overhead stays low | 80%+ of Mode 1 slice cards take under 10 minutes and under 10 fields |
A solo pilot has no control group, so results are before/after evidence only. External pilots (5–10 teams of 1–25 people, 8–12 weeks) should compare against two to four weeks of each team's previous process. F3 is not used in pilots until its statistical acceptance criteria are defined.
14.2 Red team: how SLICE fails
- Measurement burden. Teams will not hand-log latency or coordination time. Mitigation: derive both from timestamps; no timesheets.
- Outcome reviews get skipped once shipping feels good. Mitigation: the review date is set when the Bet is approved, and a Bet cannot close without resolution.
- The records grow. Three records can still recreate the overhead SLICE fights. Mitigation: H6, and cut fields when it fails.
- The wrong constraint gets managed. A team protects review while decisions are the real limit. Mitigation: monthly constraint check from measured waits.
- No moat in ideas. Every mechanism overlaps Spec Kit, BMAD, Shape Up, Kanban or Evidence-Based Management. Durable value comes from published pilot evidence and templates inside the tools teams already use.
15. Naming and clearance
SLICE stays the working name for pilots; the public name is decided after them. The expansion is now Strategic, Lightweight, Iterative, Constraint-aware, Evidence-driven.
The word is crowded in this exact space:
- XB Software's Functional Slices, an AI-era planning framework built on slices (June 2026).
- Vertical Slice Architecture, marketed as guardrails for AI development.
- The SLICE research team at LIRMM, Montpellier, working on AI-enabled software engineering.
- "SliceOps", cited in an external review as a decision-first AI framework, could not be found; the only match is an academic paper on ML operations in 6G network slicing. It is not cited until a source exists.
Before public launch: EUIPO and USPTO searches in classes 9, 41 and 42, domain checks, and a check of open-source projects. A web search cannot establish legal availability.
Sources
- DORA 2025 State of AI-assisted Software Development (Google Research)
- InfoQ on the DORA 2025 report
- Splunk review of DORA 2025
- CGNET summary of DORA 2025 adoption and trust
- METR: changing the developer productivity experiment design (via Conffab)
- ScienceBlog on the METR randomised trial
- Rob Bowley on Faros AI 2025
- HackerNoon on Faros AI, Acceleration Whiplash
- Faros AI, The Speed Trap
- Sirris on the Stanford 100k-developer study
- Andrew Ng, Stanford CS230 lecture 8 (Fall 2025)
- Shape Up, chapter 3
- SEP: Monte Carlo forecasting process
- ProKanban Flow Forecasting Pocket Guide
- Spec Kit on PyPI
- Spec Kit idea assessment quickstart
- OpenSpec project summary
- Allstacks: spec-driven development isn't waterfall (Kiro)
- Jellyfish: What is AI-DLC
- Nitor Infotech: BMAD Method guide 2026
- Charter Global: BMAD trade-offs
- Scrum.org: Evidence-Based Management key value areas
- XB Software: project management for AI-driven development
- Jimmy Bogard: Vertical Slice Architecture for AI development
- LIRMM SLICE team
- SliceOps 6G paper (CatalyzeX)